![]() They are attempting to settle differences in time to avoid a March 1 increase on U.S.-imposed tariffs. trade negotiators are at work as I write this. Trade disruptions and related uncertainty have delivered major disturbances to farming and parts of the manufacturing economy, both of which confront higher tariff-induced input prices and diminished Chinese markets due to retaliatory tariffs.Ĭhinese and U.S. These dark clouds in an otherwise buttermilk sky - if you’ll excuse a second metaphor - do have a silver lining in that they are of our own making and therefore can be temporary. We seemed to be on a roll, but three bears came home and chased Goldilocks away: trade uncertainty, monetary policy uncertainty, and the government shutdown. Consumer confidence surveys showed strong readings for the future. ![]() In some ways, things seemed to be even better than “not too hot” and “not too cold.” Real GDP growth had accelerated from 1.6 percent in 2016 to 2.3 percent in 2017, and was expected to hit 3 percent in 2018. Unemployment is forecast to continue at the natural rate. ![]() It was only September when Kimberly Amadeo wrote happily in The Balance, “The GDP growth rate is expected to remain between the 2 percent and 3 percent ideal range. Now the boom may be over before it even started.” ![]() Writing from January's World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the Wall Street Journal’s Greg Ip surmised, “A year ago the world looked like it would finally return to the boom times it enjoyed before the global financial crisis. We are now well into 2019’s first quarter, and what I, among others, have called the “Goldilocks” - or just right - economy seems to be a thing of the past. ![]()
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